Center researchers are now compiling economic information on the actual cost savings represented by the trap cropping treatments. Pacific Gold president Eddings is happy with what he’s seen so far. In a California Farmer interview published in September 2003, Eddings noted, “Dr. Sean Swezey and his group have been a valuable asset. They use our ground to carry out a lot of research trials, and we give them free rein. We’ve implemented a lot of their data on a very large scale, and it’s been very beneficial to us.” Swezey points out that these same results have implications for smaller-scale growers as well. Scaled-down versions of the large “bug vacs” are one management option for growers with smaller operations. “A reversed leaf blower or garden vacuum will also work on trap crops,” says Swezey. “The most important thing is to be consistent both in maintaining the trap crop and managing the pests.” In April of 2003, Swezey shared the results of the trap crop study with growers at an extension meeting hosted by the Community Alliance with Family Farmers in Watsonville, California. In July 2004, he presented the study’s results at the California Conference on Biological Control held at UC Berkeley. The trap crop research will continue through the 2004 cropping season. Swezey is particularly interested in expanding the work to include studies of introduced natural enemies. “We’re interested in a diversity of management strategies,” he says. “We’re experimenting now with an introduced wasp that parasitizes WTPB. It may be that a trap crop can be an effective place to colonize with massreared natural enemies.
If the natural enemies are effective, we may not need to vacuum every trap crop area every year,vertical hydroponic nft system and thus preserve natural enemy activity.” Newman’s Own Organics, Nell Newman’s successful organic food company, granted $30,000 to the Center’s Apprenticeship training program in organic farming and gardening this spring. This marks the eighth year of support from Newman’s Own Organics, and its largest donation yet to the Apprenticeship training course. Additionally, Paul Newman gave $25,000 to the Apprenticeship Program this spring. While these funds will primarily provide vital support for Apprenticeship staff salaries, $5,000 is earmarked for the creation of a booklet profiling the work of Apprenticeship graduates around the world. This $5,000 will match a $5,000 gift for the alumni booklet from Stonyfield Farm Yogurt Company and alumna Meg Cadoux-Hirshberg and her husband Gary Hirshberg. The NALITH Foundation has granted $4,000 to support classes for the Apprenticeship trainees in cooking seasonal, organic, vegetarian meals. This grant will support classes in 2004–2005, building on the past Farm and Garden cooking training done by Feel Good Foods catering company and supported by the Chez Panisse Foundation. The Margoes Foundation has granted $11,000 as its final installment of a multi-year scholarship grant for African apprentices participating in the 2004 Apprenticeship. Emelia Addi from Ghana and Joy Msomi from South Africa are the two scholarship participants this year. The Monterey Bay Chapter of the California Association of Nurseries and Garden Centers granted $3,000 last fall to support new acquisitions for the Apprenticeship library and new trees for the Farm and Alan Chadwick Garden’s demonstration orchards. We want to thank these generous funders for supporting the work of the Apprenticeship training program.The world is experiencing rising demands for crop production, stemming from three key forces: increasing human population, meat and dairy consumption from growing affluence, and bio-fuel consumption. By 2050, global agricultural production may need to be increased by 60%–110% to meet these increasing demands as well as to provide food security to the ,870 million now chronically undernourished.
The only peer reviewed estimate suggests that crop demand may increase by 100%–110% between 2005 and 2050. Numerous authors have suggested that increasing crop yields, rather than clearing more land for food production, is the most sustainable path for food security. Moreover, crop yield growth has been shown as an effective tool in reducing global poverty and undernourishment, as farmers themselves constitute the vast majority of the poor and the undernourished. However, several recent studies indicate that yields may no longer be increasing in different regions of the globe. Many of these areas are in top crop producing nations, having rising population, increasing affluence, or some combination of these factors. This may increase difficulty of meeting future crop production goals but key unknowns remain for developing and targeting strategies: how are crop yields changing across the world, where gains in crop yields are able to meet growing demands, and where crop yields are falling behind. Here we employ ,2.5 million statistics from a newly developed crop yield and area harvested database covering ,13,500 political units globally from 1961 to 2008, focusing on trends in the recent two decades. We determine the rates of yield change in each political unit for the top four global crops: maize, rice, wheat, and soybean. These four crops together produce about two-thirds of current harvested global crop calories . Using these data, we estimate the best-fit linear, non-compounding rates of yield change between 1989 and 2008 for these crops in each of these political units. Yield change is commonly modeled as a linear function of time and such models have been used to project future crop yields. We provide local, country, and global-scale rates of recent crop yield changes to determine where the rates of yield increase could double production by 2050, and where they are insufficient. The impact of negative or even slow rates of yield change in these crops could be severe, especially for low-income countries with rapidly rising population.
The underlying data, period analyzed, statistical approach, and comparisons of yield projections are described in the Methods section below,nft hydroponic system with additional details and analysis in Text S1.The global average rates of yield increase across ,13,500 political units are 1.6%, 1.0%, 0.9%, and 1.3% per year for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean, respectively . A ,2.4% per year rate of yield gains is needed to double crop production by 2050. Current rates are thus not achieving this goal. At current rates only ,67%, ,42%, ,38%, and ,55% increases in maize, rice, wheat and soybean production, respectively, is possible by 2050. We provide a range of future yield estimates by bootstrap sampling crop yield data at each of the political units studied for the period 1989 to 2008. The upper bound of the 90% confidence interval presents a slightly more optimistic scenario, global yields increase at rates of 2.4%, 1.4%, 1.8%, and 2.0% per year for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean, respectively. Yield trends following this upper bound projection could lead to ,101%, ,59%, ,76%, and ,84% increased production in these crops, respectively. The lower bound of our confidence interval provides us with a ‘‘worst-case scenario,’’ wherein the global average yield of maize, rice, wheat, and soybean would increase at 0.8%, 0.5%, 0.1%, and 0.3% per year, respectively . At these rates global production could only increase by ,34%, ,21%, ,4%, and ,13% for maize, rice, wheat, and soybean, respectively, by 2050. Further, the yield trajectory diverges, especially for rice and wheat from the 2.4% per year rate . See Figure S1 for spatial maps of r2 at each political unit and statistical diagnostic tests . In the short term, due to population increases from ,6.7 billion in 2008 to ,8.0 billion in 2025, the 1.6% and 1.3% per year global maize and soybean yield improvements may result in no significant change to the per capita global maize and soybean harvests. However, by 2050 there could be an increase. The much lower rates of rice and wheat yield increases, 1.0% and 0.9% per year, respectively, may result in no change to the per capita rice and wheat harvests to 2050. Thus, if we are to boost the production in these top four global crops that are now responsible for directly providing ,43% of the global dietary energy and ,40% of its daily protein supply from yield increases alone, we have to immediately determine where and exactly by how much yields are changing. To further understand the yield trend patterns, we also track the rates of yield change within ,13,500 political units and report the results at the local and country scales. Global trends mask the significant variations in the rates of yield change among and within countries . We determine where the within-country yield change rates are ,2.4% per year or above , where the rates are lower, and where yields are decreasing. We briefly describe these areas, emphasizing areas with doubling and decreasing rates as these areas define the places with the greatest opportunity to meeting growing demand or where to target investments. See Figure S10 for continuous rate maps in kilograms/hectare/year/year.
The influence of observed yields in 2008 on the percent rate of change is described in Figure S11 and related Text S1.Most of North Dakota and Mississippi, northeastern South Dakota, northwestern Minnesota, and some isolated counties in other United States states are witnessing ,2.4% per year or greater rates of maize yield gains. Similar doubling rates in maize yields are found in the states of Chihuahua, coastal Sinaloa, most of Michoaca´n and Guanajuato and isolated areas of few other Mexican states as well as El Salvador. Maize yields are decreasing in parts of the U. S. Great Plains states , eastern Mexico , and in Haiti and Guatemala . The resultant impact is that the United States has the highest national rates of maize yield improvement in this region of the world followed by Canada, then Cuba, and Mexico . In Central American countries such as Honduras and Nicaragua, where maize now provides ,27%, and ,25% of daily dietary energy, respectively, and in Panama , the production gains from their slower 0.5% per year yield improvement rates could be less than those required to keep pace with their population growth . In Guatemala, where maize now provides ,36% of dietary energy the yield trends are already negative , and as the population is projected to substantially increase, a steeper fall in the per capita harvested maize could occur. Rice yield doubling rates are found only in some isolated areas of North and Central America. The United States has the highest overall rice yield improvement rates , followed by Mexico . In Nicaragua and Panama where rice supplies ,16% and ,24% of dietary energy respectively, the per capita rice harvests could fall due to their population growth outpacing their 0.9% and 0.2% per year rice yield improvement rates . Elsewhere in the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, and Haiti, where rice provides 16–22% of their daily dietary energy, yields are declining at rates of 20.1% to 20.6% per year. The per capita rice production is likely to increase only in Cuba, where rice yields are increasing 0.9% per year and the population is projected to fall [5]. Wheat yields are increasing at ,2.4% per year or greater only in some counties in the U. S., . Wheat yields are decreasing in many parts of the U. S. Great Plains . In Mexico, areas with doubling rates in wheat yields are observed only in the state of Zacatecas. Nationally, wheat yields in Canada, United States, and Mexico are increasing at 1.3%, 0.8% and 1.1% per year, respectively. Most areas in the U. S. show increasing soybean yields, with doubling rates in North Dakota, isolated areas of South Dakota, Nebraska, Mississippi, Louisiana, and Georgia . Soybean yields are decreasing in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas. Canada and the United States have yields increasing at 0.2% and 1.2% per year, respectively.Most maize areas in South America are achieving doubling rates, with the exception of isolated municı´pios in Brazil. The overall impact of these varied sub-national rates is that maize yields are increasing at 1.7–4% per year in Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, and Brazil and may result in significantly higher per capita maize harvests. Other South American countries such as Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia and Ecuador, where maize provides 2–14% of dietary energy, are achieving yield increases of 1.8–3% per year but due to their population growth may result in no significant changes to their per capita maize harvests at least in the short term. Rice is grown throughout in South America and yields are improving in most areas .